ESA commissioned Euroconsult to undertake a Socio-Economic Impact (SEI) and benefit assessment of Terrae Novae programme activities. This is an extract of the Executive Summary of the resulting 2022 assessment. The full study report can be accessed in the restricted area of the ESA space economy portal here (free login required).
Amid the renewed global interest for space exploration, ESA and its Directorate for Human and Robotic Exploration Programmes(HRE) have drawn an ambitious capability roadmap to make Europe increasingly autonomous and confirm its status as a protagonist of space exploration. Its Exploration Envelope Programme (E3P), branded Terrae novae in 2021, brings together all ESA exploration activities and missions into a single framework. The European exploration vision and strategy are to undertake exploration activities to expand Europe’s Human presence in the Solar System using robotic missions as precursors, with the horizon goal of Human exploration of Mars and to create benefits for society.
In this context, Euroconsult undertook a Socio-Economic Impact (SEI) and benefit assessment of Terrae Novae activities over five impact categories – economic, strategic, technological, societal and scientific. The SEI focuses on three distinct but interconnected programme elements: continuation activities (missions approved at Space19+ and for which a decision to continue is required in 2022); ESA’s portfolio of space exploration technology development (drawn largely from the ExPeRT programme); and long-term European Exploration Strategic scenarios, as laid out in the Strategy 2030+ Roadmap.
The primary source of information of the study was a stakeholder consultation campaign. Alongside this, six bespoke economic models were used to monetize Terrae Novae’s impacts on the economies of member states in terms of gross value added (contribution to GDP), employment and tax revenues.
Key findings of the Terrae Novae SEI study
Economic impacts
Numerous economic benefits are generated by Terrae Novae activities. As a result of the more than the €2.5 billion in Terrae Novae contracts to industry (mostly concentrated in in Period 3 (P3 – 2023 to 2025) but with lower levels of funding distributed until 2030), the programme will support an annual average of circa 7,500 jobs over P3, and about 3,850 jobs per year from 2023 to 2030. Over €2.8 billion of gross value added will be added to the European economy as a result of Terrae Novae, with European governments generating over €800 million in taxes. Key Terrae Novae missions were also modelled, with all generating multipliers of 3.4 to 3.8, meaning that for every Euro generated by direct Terrae Novae activities, €3.4 to €3.8 were generated in the wider economy.
In addition to these monetized benefits, Terrae Novae acts as strategic anchor demand driving company growth strategies. By repurposing space exploration products developed for ESA for new customers (for example satellite or even terrestrial markets), companies are generating additional commercial sales. Over 60% of respondents to the consultation have increased their product portfolio thanks to Terrae Novae and 20% have already achieved commercial sales. Terrae Novae also acts as a catalyst to unlock private investments. Respondents report investing over €100 million of own capital to expand, upgrade and modernize facilities and capabilities to meet the stringent requirements of Terrae Novae missions.
Strategic impacts
Strategic impacts position European stakeholders favorably to address future opportunities. Working on Terrae Novae missions have allowed European companies to access new markets, either geographic (i.e., TAS developing modules in the US for Axiom’s commercial space station thanks to its work on the ISS and Gateway) or vertical (i.e., ArianeGroupe re-purposing the electric thrusters it developed for the MSR’s Earth Return Orbiter mission for conventional satellites).
Terrae Novae also builds upon key European space exploration heritage to continuously increase expertise and efficiency. Examples of technological continuity between programmes include pressurized habitats technology through the ATV to the ISS and Gateway, propulsion elements from the ATV to the ESM, as well as docking interfaces, avionics, deployable elements and more. By leveraging European heritage, Terrae Novae ensures a key role for European players in international and European-led space exploration missions.
Terrae Novae projects are increasing Europe’s strategic autonomy in space. While supply chain dependencies on the US remain, an increasing number of components previously procured outside of Europe are being replaced with European-made technologies. Terrae Novae missions such as the European Large Logistics Lander (EL3) increase end-to-end capabilities, reducing European reliance and opening opportunities for European-led missions, including with international partners.
Technological impacts
Technology benefits are generated when new technologies are leveraged to increase efficiency and improve products. Terrae Novae projects increase technical expertise in Europe in mechanical, electrical and system engineering, radiation tolerance, technology miniaturization, programme management, and more. As a result, virtually all Terrae Novae projects drive Technology Readiness Level (TRL) increases.
Terrae Novae programmes also build extensively on technology spin-ins from terrestrial sectors, such as the energy, automotive, industrial, software and submarine industries. For example, an Italian automotive SME was able to achieve mass savings of 115 kg on the Cygnus vehicle by utilizing ultra-lightweight materials used in the high-performance car racing industry without sacrificing safety. While fewer, Terrae Novae projects also generate technological spin-outs for other sectors in space (satellite markets, in orbit servicing, space logistics, etc.) and on Earth (maritime, energy, mining, automotive, etc.). For example, the ISS’ Advanced Closed Loop System (ACLS) developed by Airbus recycles carbon dioxide exhaled by astronauts, creating water and oxygen. Airbus is currently commercialising spin-outs of this technology for use in submarines, whose closed environments and resource recycling requirements resemble those aboard the ISS. Other potential terrestrial applications include the airline industry to filter and purify oxygen in airplane cabins and industrial farming, as large greenhouses fill with CO2, which is currently vented out into the atmosphere.
Societal impacts
Societal benefits are those which participate in advancing societal and environmental goals, inspiring the public and attracting positive public attention. Terrae Novae’s ability to inspire the public is one of its greatest benefits, with this inspiration being used to create educational value, encourage youth to pursue STEM degrees, stimulate employment and innovation in Europe, and strengthen European identify via collective goals to rally around.
The programmes generating the most environmental value were those focused on long duration missions and exploitation of the space environment. Their focus on resource recycling with little to no consumable inputs in closed cycles to reduce the reliance on costly supply chains provides technological bricks for circular economy and recycling paradigms on Earth, once repurposed for terrestrial applications. For example, thanks to space research on the ISS, a device using UV rather than harmful chemicals for water purification was developed and can be used by remote communities or in emergency relief situations as the device does not need to be connected to a grid.
Terrae Novae projects—especially those with a human spaceflight element—attract significantly more media attention than conventional satellite activities, improving corporate image and generating a level of connection with the public that is impossible with robotic exploration. This increased corporate visibility pays additional dividends, for example by providing a platform to attract under-represented groups such as youth and women to the space sector, attracting and maintaining skilled talent, etc.
Scientific impacts
Terrae Novae projects make an undeniable contribution to science. Of the 65 stakeholders consulted (representing a small fraction of the hundreds of organizations working on Terrae Novae), several hundred scientific papers are published annually by over 40 respondents. As the study assessed benefits before Terrae Novae missions had launched (except for ISS), the real scientific output is expected to be far greater, as the greatest scientific benefits are generated after the payload has been launched. Other Terrae Novae missions, while not generating scientific value directly, indirectly enable science, for example through transportation and cargo, habitability, supporting systems, etc.
Conclusions
Terrae Novae supports high-value jobs in ESA member states
The jobs created and supported by Terrae Novae maintain high-value skills in Europe in multiple engineering and scientific fields, estimated at an annual average of circa 7,500 jobs over 2023 to 2030. Through talent transfers, the exploration sector infuses other space markets (telecom, EO, etc.) and high technology terrestrial markets.
Terrae Novae creates strategic anchor demand for industry
Terrae Novae programmes are drivers of company growth strategies: by repurposing products developed for ESA for new customers/markets, companies can generate additional sales and access new markets.
Exploration programmes drive expertise increases for industry
Working on Terrae Novae projects is an invaluable source of knowhow and expertise,includingmechanical, electrical and system engineering, miniaturization, waste management, quality control, programme management, digitalization, and many more.
Inspiration generated by space exploration is paramount
The ability of exploration programmes (principally Human spaceflight) to inspire the public is one of their greatest benefits. It translates into educational value, encourages youth to pursue STEM degrees, stimulates employment and innovation in Europe, encourages the retainment of talent in Europe and strengthens European identity via collective goals
Autonomous Human spaceflight is a guarantee of sovereignty
The geopolitical context underlines the vulnerability of an astronaut programme relying on the political will of foreign nations. Europe’s lack of Human spaceflight capability undermines its eye-level relationship with other space powers.
Terrae Novae can produce societal and environmental value
Exploration technologies and programmes focused on resource recycling with little to no consumable inputs in closed cycles to reduce the reliance on costly supply chains can participate in circular economy and resource recycling paradigms on Earth, contributing to SDGs.
The exploration sector benefits strongly from tech spin-ins
Due to the high cost and low volumes of the space sector, especially exploration, the ability to leverage know-how and R&D investments made in terrestrial sectors is paramount. Several terrestrial sectors provide technology inputs (automotive, energy, industrial, robotics, big data, etc.)
Programmatic uncertainty is the most common risk
Program redefinitions and cancellations impact stakeholders’ growth strategies and product roadmaps, often forcing them to maintain skills and technology amid uncertainty and interruptions. This is in part due to the intergovernmental nature of ESA and the high level of international cooperation in Terrae Novae projects.
Recommendations
Consider space exploration a geopolitical imperative
Europe must invest in next generation exploration capabilities in order to have a seat at the table, be considered an eye-level partner in international frameworks and achieve the horizon goal of landing European astronauts on Mars. If not, it will be relegated to a supporting partner role and be forced to pay in cash to participate in international partnerships.
Make select investments to secure a protagonist role
ESA cannot realistically acquire an independent capability in all segments due to comparatively low budgets. However, it can develop a select number of “must have” capabilities (Human transportation, robotic Lunar landing) to ensure its autonomy and attract partners for Europe-led missions
Move forward with the EL3 capability
The EL3 is regarded as the next key milestone by respondents as it would provide Europe with an autonomous landing capability (in the 2t-to-surface niche), along with access to strategic areas. As such, it is seen as an enabler of European strategic autonomy and of its ability to deploy independent missions and contribute barter elements to international frameworks.
Expect market uncertainty in all fields of exploration
Demand beyond ESA itself is often highly uncertain given the high specialization of their systems and overall limited demand for exploration (ESM, rovers, landers, etc.). There is no assurance that single government user markets will translate into diversified commercial demand-driven market
Consider a service procurement approach for exploration
NASA has pioneered the use of service procurement in the field of exploration (COTS, CCDev, HLS, CLPS and CLD). Many respondents argued Europe should take note of a service approach’s advantages, including lower service costs, transfer of responsibility from agency to industry, simplification of the procurement process and more room for innovation for private contractors.
Consider multi-sector technology development
Due to the high cost and low volumes of the exploration sector, encouraging synergies with terrestrial sectors in technology development early in its lifetime could help drive costs down through economies of scale while validating basic technology segments on Earth thanks to much larger pools of operational data.